Working Papers:
with Simon Jäger and Patrick Nüß, NBER Working Paper 31988
Abstract
We study how labor market conditions affect unionization decisions. Tight labor markets might spur unionization, e.g., by reducing the threat of unemployment after management opposition or employer retaliation in response to a unionization attempt. Tightness might also weaken unionization by providing attractive outside alternatives to engaging in costly unionization. Drawing on a large-scale, representative survey experiment among U.S. workers, we show that an increase in worker beliefs about labor market tightness moderately raises support for union activity. Effect sizes are small as they imply that moving from trough to peak of the business cycle increases workers' probability of voting for a union by only one percentage point. To study equilibrium effects, we draw on three quasi-experimental research designs using data from across U.S. states and counties over several decades. We find no systematic effect of changes in aggregate labor market tightness on union membership, union elections, and strikes. Overall, our results challenge the notion that labor market tightness significantly drives U.S. unionization.
Work in Progress:
Union Power and Electoral Voice of Workers
Abstract
This paper studies the relationship between union membership and electoral representation of workers. I show that a reduction in political representation of working-class voters led to a decline in electoral turnout and a rise in union membership. These results are based on a historical episode in 19th-century Germany, where near-universal manhood suffrage for Saxon state elections was replaced by a restrictive, class-based scheme that allocated voting power based on tax payments while leaving the electoral system for national elections unchanged. In a difference-in-differences framework, I compare the behavior of voters in the same jurisdictions in national vs. state elections within the Kingdom of Saxony. I document that voter turnout falls by 9.54 percentage points (19%) in the treated state-level elections relative to national elections, and this decrease is driven by lower-income workers abstaining from the state vote. Next, I show how the reform affected the composition of the state parliament by drawing on a novel biographical dataset capturing the socioeconomic background of all members of parliament (MPs) between 1869 and 1918. Beyond decreasing the number of seats held by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to zero, the antidemocratic suffrage reform yielded a sharp increase in the number of newly elected MPs that can be classified as "industrialists," e.g., because they own a factory or have otherwise strong ties to industry. I then study whether this negative shock to workers' electoral representation led to a change in union membership – an alternative channel through which workers could collectively express their demands. To that end, I draw on newly digitized panel data on union membership in the German Empire at the county-industry level matched with employment information from the 1895 census. Using a difference-in-differences design across states, I show that the decrease in electoral representation among lower-income workers in Saxony led to a 4 percentage point increase in union membership, suggesting that union power and electoral voice are substitutes. Finally, I study whether MPs who were personally exposed to the threat of union organizing, through their ownership of factories, voted to return to universal, equally weighted suffrage in 1909. This provides evidence of the importance of personal financial interests for legislative behavior and evidence that elites believe extending the franchise placates working-class voters and reduces labor strife.
Unions and Technology
with Daron Acemoglu, Kjell Salvanes and Alexander Willén
The Economics of Resetting the Biological Clock
with Abi Adams-Prassl and Nina Roussille